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Post by dinosauria101 on Aug 26, 2019 21:16:21 GMT 5
Title says it: What common species today do you think will be extinct in 2100, and why?
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Post by theropod on Aug 26, 2019 21:24:43 GMT 5
Title says it: What common species today do you think will be extinct in 2100, and why? Humans, too stupid and shortsighted to survive.
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Post by dinosauria101 on Aug 26, 2019 21:39:10 GMT 5
theropodYou really think so? I agree we will eventually drive ourselves to extinction, but isn't 2100 a bit soon for that? Not saying it's impossible, but I'd expect us to die out by 2200 or 2300.
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Post by theropod on Aug 26, 2019 21:58:37 GMT 5
Well, generally speaking yes, 2100 sounds early for a common species to go extinct, but on the other hand, humans, mostly just during the last century, have had remarkable success creating problems that threaten their own existence. On our current course, if we aren’t extinct by 2100, at least we will be safely on the way to extinction. I mean think of all the things that have happened just in the last 100 years. Under the wrong leadership (like the current world leaders), it would be easy to see how these developments could continue their exponential increase until the end of the century, in which case we are F***ed.
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Post by Infinity Blade on Aug 26, 2019 22:08:32 GMT 5
Vaquitas. For Christ's sake, there are like, 10 to at most 19 left.
Perhaps rhinos and elephants will be extinct in the wild by 2100. I wouldn't be too surprised to hear of the Sumatran rhino in particular going completely extinct between now and the turn of the century.
Edit: sorry, "common" species, the OP says. Well, if you're looking for any species, common or not, these would be my first picks.
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Post by dinosauria101 on Aug 26, 2019 22:12:50 GMT 5
I mean think of all the things that have happened just in the last 100 years. Under the wrong leadership (like the current world leaders), it would be easy to see how these developments could continue their exponential increase until the end of the century, in which case we are F***ed. Well, you may have a point there. However, we may also suffer a bit due to supply shortages before going extinct
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Post by Infinity Blade on Aug 26, 2019 22:25:46 GMT 5
Here's a 2010 book on the status and trends of the world's vertebrates. It's quite old, but I'm sure a lot of what it says still holds true. It has vital statistics for each of the main vertebrate groups, including which species/groups of each are most threatened. portals.iucn.org/library/efiles/documents/2010-057.pdfEDIT: eh, what the heck? I'll list them down below. For vertebrates as a whole: - Amphibians (most threatened)
- Mammals and reptiles
Among fish: - coelacanths
- seahorses
- lampreys
- killifishes
- livebearers
- cichlids
- rainbowfish
- coregonids
- galaxiids
- tunas
- sharks
- rays
- chimaeras
Among amphibians: - salamanders
- Leiopelma
- Rhinoderma
- Seychelles frogs
Among reptiles: Among mammals: - apes
- river dolphins
- solenodons
- rhinos
- manatees
- dugongs
- hutias
Among birds: - albatrosses
- cranes
- parrots
- pheasants
- bustards
- pigeons
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Post by creature386 on Aug 26, 2019 22:31:47 GMT 5
Polar bears Tigers Rhinos (all species) Elephants (as above) Gorillas (as above) Emperor penguins Great white sharks
These are just off the top of my head. I had a couple more on my blog in the Carnivora archive, but it went extinct.
Humans have among the highest survival chances among large-bodied animals though. Even if all of civilization collapsed (which is indeed rather fragile), we'd be in a much better position than most endangered animals.
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Post by dinosauria101 on Aug 26, 2019 22:36:07 GMT 5
Some food for thought: might leopards be at risk? They are currently doing well due to a wide range and adaptability, but there are only so many places to live. If contact with people is too severe, I think leopards would get the brunt of it. creature386 Are you sure about great whites? They're not THAT badly endangered, just vulnerable IIRC. Edit: Nice joke about your blog going extinct! Certainly is more pleasant than 'I was banned'
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Post by creature386 on Aug 26, 2019 22:45:03 GMT 5
Some food for thought: might leopards be at risk? They are currently doing well due to a wide range and adaptability, but there are only so many places to live. If contact with people is too severe, I think leopards would get the brunt of it. I'm pretty sure anything big and cool is doomed. The time frame is quite large after all. 2019-2100 is longer than from the end of WWII (or even the beginning) to now. Before the Second World War, overhunting was the main death sentence for endangered species. Ever since WWII, we have consumed more resources than in the entire world history prior to that combined and the trend is an exponential increase. Not to mention that global warming has barely even began to kick in.. Are you sure about great whites? They're not THAT badly endangered, just vulnerable IIRC. Funny, back when I was young, everyone was going on about how great white sharks already now have too low populations to survive. If they're only vulnerable, it's not as bad as I thought (which is to say, they aren't a top pick), but probably still not good enough to survive. The great white shark is too high in the food chain and part of a too sensitive ecosystem to stand a chance.
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Post by dinosauria101 on Aug 26, 2019 22:57:45 GMT 5
Some food for thought: might leopards be at risk? They are currently doing well due to a wide range and adaptability, but there are only so many places to live. If contact with people is too severe, I think leopards would get the brunt of it. 1:I'm pretty sure anything big and cool is doomed. The time frame is quite large after all. 2019-2100 is longer than from the end of WWII (or even the beginning) to now. 2:Before the Second World War, overhunting was the main death sentence for endangered species. Ever since WWII, we have consumed more resources than in the entire world history prior to that combined and the trend is an exponential increase. Not to mention that global warming has barely even began to kick in.. Are you sure about great whites? They're not THAT badly endangered, just vulnerable IIRC. 3:Funny, back when I was young, everyone was going on about how great white sharks already now have too low populations to survive. If they're only vulnerable, it's not as bad as I thought (which is to say, they aren't a top pick), but probably still not good enough to survive. The great white shark is too high in the food chain and part of a too sensitive ecosystem to stand a chance. 1: Unfortunately, that's pretty accurate at this point. My guess is, come 2100, the only thriving animals will be ones that are very common today, such as seagulls, mosquitoes, and the like. 2: Errn..I had actually forgot about the global warming. Many animals will basically melt to death should it get bad enough. 3: One more thing I found on Wiki: They cannot reproduce until age 30. That may spell doom for them as well.
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Post by Infinity Blade on Aug 30, 2019 4:06:30 GMT 5
Vaquitas. For Christ's sake, there are like, 10 to at most 19 left. I've gotten a little more clarity from the most recent report reporting <19 individuals remaining (having only peeked at news articles until today). From the results section: royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.190598
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Post by dinosauria101 on Aug 30, 2019 5:22:55 GMT 5
Only 9 left? If that's the case, I would not be surprised if they were extinct by 2020
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Post by Infinity Blade on Sept 2, 2019 4:03:56 GMT 5
No particular species, but there was a 2015 study that estimated how much the current extinction rate deviates from the background rate, and they were being extremely conservative with their assumptions. Even with these assumptions, the extinction rate is up to 100 times higher than the background rate. advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/5/e1400253
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Post by dinosauria101 on Sept 2, 2019 19:37:55 GMT 5
That's not good.
I wouldn't be surprised if the fate of the passenger pigeon fell on the rock pigeon
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